Probability of ignition 2023

This layer is an approximation to the identification of the points where a forest fire is most likely to start. To this end, on behalf of the Government of Navarre, the University of Lleida (Fermín Alcasena) carries out two complementary analyses:
Un registro de la Densidad de Igniciones, calculada a partir la recopilación de los puntos de ignición registrados entre 2011 y 2021, y un radio de 20 km (capa visible para escalas menores a 1:10.000).
Un cálculo a priori de la Probabilidad de Ignición, realizado empleando un modelo de ocurrencia logit diseñado para Navarra central (Alcasena et al. 2016a), with 50 m resolution, and that uses variables referring mainly to distances to infrastructures and antopic land uses. This assigns to each pixel a spatial value ranging from 0 to 1, which refers to the percentage of risk factors that occur at that point, and which will be related to the probability that, in case of starting a fire, the ignition point can be found in a certain pixel (visible layer for scales greater than 1:10,000).
This work is part of the actions of the European Project LIFE-IP NAdapta-CC.