Sea Level Rise: American Samoa: Extreme High-Tide Flooding: 2100 Low Scenario: 50 Days Per Year

Description

This extreme high-tide flooding layer provides a prediction of future sea level rise (SLR) inundation and was produced using a passive flooding model, often referred to as a "bathtub" model. It provides an assessment of flooded areas according to a specific water level. These water levels are determined using projections from the U.S. Interagency Task Force (ITF) (Sweet et al., 2022) in combination with land subsidence projections modeled by Han et al. (2019). The latter is included only for Tutuila, Aunuu, and Manua Islands (Ofu, Olosega, and Tau). In contrast, SLR projections for Swains Island and Rose Atoll only include the climate-related processes (ITF). The projections are modeled following both scenarios and time. The five scenarios range from low to high depending on the amount of greenhouse gases emissions, while time is divided by decade from 2030 to 2100. We apply this model to the 2022 National Geodetic Survey (NGS) lidar DEM for American Samoa with 1-meter resolution. The DEM was leveled from NAD83 (PA11) to mean sea level at 0 m (MSL=0) in 2005. The adjustment of the DEM may lead to inaccuracies due to the lack of historic information. It is also important to acknowledge that any inaccuracies in the DEM will lead to inaccuracies in the flooding estimates. When assessing the impacts of future sea level rise, it is important to consider how often flood conditions will occur in a given year. A low-lying location will begin to see impacts of being flooded a few times per year. Then, as sea level rise increases, it will flood tens of times per year. Eventually, that location may be flooded under a daily high tide. The present scenario models a frequency of 50 flooding days per year. Please note that this frequency represents an average number of times per year (Thompson et al., 2021). Any particular year may have substantially more or less flooding days depending on local climate variability (such as the El Nino, La Nina cycle) and year-to-year variability in the tides due to changes in the alignment of the Earth, Moon, and Sun. Secondly, flooding frequencies are based on data from the Pago Pago tide gauge on Tutuila, which means that estimates may not perfectly represent local conditions outside the harbor or on other islands. However, this is the best source of information available, and we do not expect this to lead to significant inaccuracies in the estimates of flooding frequency. In the 2100 low scenario represented here, the modeled water level for a 50-day frequency is 132 cm (95 cm for Rose and Swains). In this scenario, significant world-wide emissions reductions are implemented now, which is highly unlikely. It is not recommended to use this scenario for planning purposes. Flood depth is provided in centimeters above the 2005 mean higher high water (MHHW) tide level. It is essential to emphasize that the passive flooding model used to produce this data layer does not include the effects of waves on flooding. As a result, the extent and impacts of future flooding under high-wave conditions are not represented, which should be accounted for in planning efforts. In addition, the DEM is assumed to be unchanged as sea level rises, but in fact there will be erosion and changes in the shape of the land surface, and continued subsidence. This also must be considered, and it is best practice to consider any flooding extent or depth represented in this data layer as a best-case scenario, with the effects of dynamic shoreline processes leading to greater flood extent and depth than presented.

Resources

Name Format Description Link
0 NOAA National Geodetic Survey (NGS). 2022. NOAA NGS Topobathy Lidar DEM of Rose Atoll, American Samoa. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/inport/item/72133
51 Open Geospatial Consortium Web Feature Service (WFS). Supported WFS versions include 1.0.0, 1.1.0, and 2.0.0. Supported output formats include CSV, GeoJSON, GeoJSON-P, GML, KML, and Shapefile (Zipped). http://geo.pacioos.hawaii.edu/geoserver/PACIOOS/as_uhslc_all_slr_xflood_2100_low_50day_v2/ows?service=WFS&version=1.0.0&request=GetCapabilities
0 https://uhslc.soest.hawaii.edu
0 This URL provides a viewer and/or data access for this dataset. http://pacioos.org/shoreline/slr-amsam/
0 NOAA National Geodetic Survey (NGS). 2022. NOAA NGS Topobathy Lidar DEM of Ta'u, American Samoa. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/inport/item/72142
0 This URL provides access to this dataset via GeoServer, which offers multiple output formats and an OpenLayers viewer. http://geo.pacioos.hawaii.edu/geoserver/
0 This URL provides a viewer for this dataset. http://geo.pacioos.hawaii.edu/geoexplorer/
0 NOAA National Geodetic Survey (NGS). 2022. NOAA NGS Topobathy Lidar DEM of Ofu and Olosega, American Samoa. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/inport/item/72129
0 NOAA National Geodetic Survey (NGS). 2022. NOAA NGS Topobathy Lidar DEM of Tutuila, American Samoa. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/inport/item/72145
0 https://uhslc.soest.hawaii.edu
27 http://pacioos.org
0 https://uhslc.soest.hawaii.edu
27 http://pacioos.org
0 https://uhslc.soest.hawaii.edu
52 Open Geospatial Consortium Web Map Service (WMS). Supported WMS versions include 1.1.1 and 1.3.0. Supported map formats include AtomPub, GeoRSS, GeoTIFF, GIF, JPEG, KML/KMZ, PDF, PNG, SVG, and TIFF. Supported info formats include GeoJSON, GeoJSON-P, GML, HTML, and plain text. http://geo.pacioos.hawaii.edu/geoserver/PACIOOS/as_uhslc_all_slr_xflood_2100_low_50day_v2/ows?service=WMS&version=1.3.0&request=GetCapabilities
27 http://pacioos.org
0 NOAA National Geodetic Survey (NGS). 2022. NOAA NGS Topobathy Lidar DEM of Swains Island, American Samoa. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/inport/item/72139
0 This URL provides access to this dataset via GeoServer, which offers multiple output formats and an OpenLayers viewer. https://geo.pacioos.hawaii.edu/geoserver/
0 This URL provides a viewer and/or data access for this dataset. http://pacioos.org/shoreline/slr-amsam/
0 NOAA National Geodetic Survey (NGS). 2022. NOAA NGS Topobathy Lidar DEM of Ofu and Olosega, American Samoa. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/inport/item/72129
0 NOAA National Geodetic Survey (NGS). 2022. NOAA NGS Topobathy Lidar DEM of Rose Atoll, American Samoa. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/inport/item/72133
0 NOAA National Geodetic Survey (NGS). 2022. NOAA NGS Topobathy Lidar DEM of Ta'u, American Samoa. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/inport/item/72142
0 NOAA National Geodetic Survey (NGS). 2022. NOAA NGS Topobathy Lidar DEM of Tutuila, American Samoa. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/inport/item/72145
0 https://uhslc.soest.hawaii.edu
27 http://pacioos.org
0 https://uhslc.soest.hawaii.edu
0 https://uhslc.soest.hawaii.edu
27 http://pacioos.org
0 https://uhslc.soest.hawaii.edu
27 http://pacioos.org
52 Open Geospatial Consortium Web Map Service (WMS). Supported WMS versions include 1.1.1 and 1.3.0. Supported map formats include AtomPub, GeoRSS, GeoTIFF, GIF, JPEG, KML/KMZ, PDF, PNG, SVG, and TIFF. Supported info formats include GeoJSON, GeoJSON-P, GML, HTML, and plain text. https://geo.pacioos.hawaii.edu/geoserver/PACIOOS/as_uhslc_all_slr_xflood_2100_low_50day_v2/ows?service=WMS&version=1.3.0&request=GetCapabilities
0 https://uhslc.soest.hawaii.edu
27 http://pacioos.org
52 Open Geospatial Consortium Web Map Service - Cached (WMS-C). Use of WMS-C is similar to traditional WMS but with the addition of the "tiled=true" parameter, which triggers GeoServer to pull map tiles from GeoWebCache if they have been previously generated. This can dramatically improve performance, especially for larger datasets. Supported map formats include JPEG and PNG. Supported info formats include GeoJSON, GML, HTML, and plain text. https://geo.pacioos.hawaii.edu/geoserver/PACIOOS/${id}/ows?service=WMS&version=1.1.1&request=GetCapabilities&tiled=true
52 Open Geospatial Consortium Web Map Service - Cached (WMS-C). Use of WMS-C is similar to traditional WMS but with the addition of the "tiled=true" parameter, which triggers GeoServer to pull map tiles from GeoWebCache if they have been previously generated. This can dramatically improve performance, especially for larger datasets. Supported map formats include JPEG and PNG. Supported info formats include GeoJSON, GML, HTML, and plain text. http://geo.pacioos.hawaii.edu/geoserver/PACIOOS/gwc/service/wms?service=WMS&version=1.1.1&request=GetCapabilities&tiled=true
0 https://uhslc.soest.hawaii.edu
27 http://pacioos.org
0 NOAA National Geodetic Survey (NGS). 2022. NOAA NGS Topobathy Lidar DEM of Swains Island, American Samoa. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/inport/item/72139
51 Open Geospatial Consortium Web Feature Service (WFS). Supported WFS versions include 1.0.0, 1.1.0, and 2.0.0. Supported output formats include CSV, GeoJSON, GeoJSON-P, GML, KML, and Shapefile (Zipped). https://geo.pacioos.hawaii.edu/geoserver/PACIOOS/as_uhslc_all_slr_xflood_2100_low_50day_v2/ows?service=WFS&version=1.0.0&request=GetCapabilities

Tags

  • human dimensions
  • sea level rise
  • swains
  • manua
  • inundation
  • oceans
  • pacioos
  • american samoa
  • tutuila
  • aunuu
  • pacific islands ocean observing system
  • rose atoll
  • olosega
  • earth science
  • environmental impacts
  • ofu
  • ocean
  • climate indicators
  • atmospheric/ocean indicators
  • polynesia
  • coastal processes
  • floods
  • pacific ocean
  • tau
  • natural hazards
  • south pacific ocean

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