Predicted Habitat Suitability for All Mesophotic Corals in the Au'au Channel Region

This dataset is located between the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe, and includes the Au'au Channel as well as parts of the Kealaikahiki, Alalakeiki and Kalohi Channels. This map denotes predicted habitat suitability for all mesophotic corals in the Au'au Channel region. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling software was used to create this ensemble model, which is an average of 10 model replicates. MaxEnt works by analyzing the distribution of environmental variables where species are present, so it can find other areas that meet all of the same environmental constraints. Georeferenced records containing information about mesophotic coral occurrence and environmental predictors describing the seafloors depth, vertical structure, available light, surface temperature, currents and distance from shoreline were used to train MaxEnt. Model performance and accuracy were assessed using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Area Under the Curve (AUC) and a randomly chosen, spatially independent data subset. The average test AUC for this predictive ensemble model was 0.9, and the overall accuracy of this ensemble predictive model was 73.1% (when the habitat suitability threshold = 0.25). The habitat suitability threshold of 0.25 represents the sum of the maximum ROC sensitivity and specificity values. Extreme care should be taken when selecting a habitat suitability threshold because it affects the probability of correctly identifying the presence and absence of mesophotic corals. For more information describing how this predictive surface was developed and its limitations, please see the following website: https://coastalscience.noaa.gov/project/modeling-mesophotic-coral-distributions-auau-channel-hawaii/