NCCOS Ecological Effects of Sea Level Rise in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (EESLR-NGOM): Simulated Return Period Stillwater Elevation (NCEI Accession 0170340)

This dataset comprises stillwater storm surge projections for 2100 for the northern Gulf of Mexico (Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida panhandle) using a high-resolution coupled SWAN+ADCIRC model (Bilskie et al., 2016a). These results are from a predictive model in a scenario-based modeling framework that makes projections under sea level difference scenarios.

There are two categories of stillwater storm surge model outputs for the 1% and 0.2% annual chance occurrence probability -- meaning 1% or 0.2% chance of being met or exceeded in any given year -- resulting from the Ecological Effect of Sea Level Rise Northern Gulf of Mexico (EESLR-NGOM) project: 1) Water surface elevation of stillwater storm surge [ 1 GB total file size, 150 files] and 2) Inundation depth above ground of stillwater storm surge [ 1 GB total file size, 150 files]. The boundaries for the three study regions are also included. For a complete description of the methods used to generate these results, please see the Bilskie et al. (2017) publication, referenced in the ‘Cited Publications’ section below. Each stillwater storm surge model output, described below, is provided for the following 5 sea level rise scenarios (Parris et al. 2012): Initial Condition (no change from c. 2000 mean sea level (MSL)), Low (+0.2m from MSL), Intermediate-Low (+0.5m from MSL), Intermediate-High (+1.2m from MSL), and High (+2.0m from MSL).