National Trip End Model (NTEM)

The freely available TEMPro software is required to view these datasets.

The National Trip End Model (NTEM) model forecasts the growth in trip origin-destinations (or productions-attractions) up to 2051 for use in transport modelling. The forecasts take into account national projections of:

• population
• employment
• housing
• car ownership
• trip rates

NTEM forecasts are subject to uncertainty, especially when disaggregated to local zones or travel modes. Before using the NTEM forecasts, the following DfT guidance should be reviewed:

• TAG Unit M-4 Forecasting and Uncertainty
• NTEM Planning Guidance that provides an overview of the forecasts and the input data used (available in the NTEM Documentation Download below).

Further technical details are available in the NTEM specification.

Queries regarding the NTEM forecasts should be sent to Department for Transport. To register to receive updates, email TEMProMailingList@atkinsglobal.com to be added to the TEMPro distribution list.

GIS boundary files for the NTEM zone system are available.