Description

A one-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States, based on induced and natural earthquakes, has been produced by the U.S. Geological Survey. The model assumes that earthquake rates calculated from several different time windows will remain relatively stationary and can be used to forecast earthquake hazard and damage intensity for the year 2016. This assessment is the first step in developing an operational earthquake forecast for the CEUS, and the analysis could be revised with updated seismicity and model parameters. Consensus input models consider alternative earthquake catalog durations, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground motion estimates, and represent uncertainties in earthquake occurrence and diversity of opinion in the science community. Near some areas of active induced earthquakes, hazard is higher than in the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NHSM) by more than a factor of 3; the 2014 NHSM did not consider induced earthquakes. In some areas, previously observed induced earthquakes have stopped, so the seismic hazard reverts back to the 2014 NSHM. This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. It represents the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) with a 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year. The MMI values are obtained by converting peak ground acceleration to MMI. The data are for the Western United States and are based on the long-term 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model.

Resources

Name	Format	Description	Link
	55	The metadata original format	https://data.usgs.gov/datacatalog/metadata/USGS.571e76dae4b071321fe567df.xml
	55	Landing page for access to the data	http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7M32SW5

Modified Mercalli Intensity based on peak ground acceleration, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year

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