Climate shelters for habitats of community and regional interest of the CAPV.
Description
The project is part of the Energy Transition and Climate Change Plan 2021-2024 of the Basque Government (Basque Government, 2021), which includes among its 15 flagship initiatives to promote a “resilient Basque Natura 2000 network that favors climate neutrality”, helping to increase the resilience of the territory while facilitating the path to the neutrality of the territory.
The present analysis focuses on determining the areas in which the ideal climatic conditions for certain terrestrial habitats are maintained in a climate change scenario, both those that coincide with their current surface (SA) and those that extend in other areas. Eight terrestrial habitats were evaluated: 3 forests (9120-Acidophilic beech, 9340-Encinar and carrascales, G1.86-Acidophilic forest dominated by Quercus robur), 2 scrubland (4030-Acidophilic dry bezels, 4040*-Coastal dry bellies) and 3 meadows-pasts (6210*-Mesophilic pastes with Brachypodium pinnatum, 6220*-Berophilic pastes of Brachypodium retusum, 6510-Prados of Atlantic sieges). The analysis was carried out based on the calculation of the exposure to climate change carried out within the framework of the project “Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change of the Natura 2000 Network in the CAPV” initiated in 2017 within the R & D program KLIMATEK (innovation and demonstration projects in adaptation to climate change) promoted by the Basque Government.
The definition of “Refugia Reseach Coallition” was used as a reference where, climate shelters are those areas that remain relatively protected from climate change over time, so that they present or may present in the future climatic conditions equivalent to the current ones to host a specific habitat or species, thus enabling the persistence and potential expansion of biodiversity. Thus, three different typologies of climate shelters were defined:
— Core shelter (RN): areas of the current distribution of a habitat that maintain optimal climatic conditions in a scenario of future climate change, enabling its conservation.
— Persistence zone (ZP): areas of the current potential distribution of a habitat in which it is currently absent, which maintain optimal climatic conditions in a scenario of future climate change, enabling its persistence.
— Neo-habitat (NH): areas outside the current potential distribution of a habitat, but that in a scenario of future climate change may present climatic conditions equivalent to those optimal to host it, and where its potential expansion could be possible.
The detailed definition of the different types of shelters, the calculations made and a discussion of the results obtained can be found in the specific document associated with this data mapping "Climate shelters for habitats of community and regional interest of the CAPV. Preliminary analysis for terrestrial habitats" (Ihobe, 2021).
The quantitative calculation of the exposure using Potential Distribution Models was based on the most up-to-date cartographic information on the distribution of terrestrial habitats of interest (community and regional), as well as the regionalised climate data on temperature and precipitation for the climate scenario SPC 8.5 in the time period 2071-2100 (Ihobe, 2019). The reference mapping as well as the base maps are nourished by the existing information in GeoEuskadi (Infrastructure of Spatial Data of the Basque Country). Exposure is considered to exist when the current surface (HS) of a habitat does not coincide geographically with its potential distribution in the climate change scenario (Future Potential Surface, SPF). The detailed description of the obtaining of potential surfaces can be found in the specific document "Methodology for the calculation of the climatic risk of terrestrial habitats in the Basque Country.
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