Management-Strategy Evaluation of the Main Hawaiian Islands with the Atlantis Ecosystem Model: hind-cast simulations and ecosystem forecasting under climate scenarios

The data described here is the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI) Atlantis Ecosystem model output data for biomass and catch trends of various functional groups under different scenarios. Hind-cast simulations were run for for model validation, and forecast simulations were run for ecological forecasting under different climate change scenarios. The data used in the model comes from benthic and coral reef fish surveys conducted by Pacific Island Fisheries Science Center (PIFSC) RAMP cruises, recreational fishery data from MRIP, commercial fishery data administered by WPacFIN, bottomfish fishery-dependent and independent data from PIFSC, and sea turtle and monk seal data from the PIFSC. Model simulations of ecological forecasting were carried out and included 50 year forecast (2020-2070) simulations with and without the predicted effects of climate change (ocean warming and ocean acidification) evaluating changes in ecological and social state components.

The MHI Atlantis Ecosystem Model incorporates the coral-specific modules that were developed for the Guam Atlantis model. The model can be used for management-strategy evaluation by simulating existing and alternative fisheries and land-use regulations and comparing the results under different management and environmental change scenarios (e.g. in terms of fish biomass, coral cover, fisherman participation). A hindcast simulation is used for model validation and the model is used for ecosystem forecasting under two climate change scenarios. Data can be accessed via the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Ocean Archive, accession # 0240826.