ICLUS v2.1.1 land use projections for SSP5 and RCP8.5 pathways
Description
The methodology used to produce these projections differs from ICLUS v2.0 (https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/iclus/recordisplay.cfm?deid=322479). The demographic components of change (i.e., rates of fertility and mortality) for ICLUS v2.1 were taken directly from the Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer (http://witt.null2.net/shiny/wic/). These projections were produced more recently than the Census projections used in ICLUS v2.0, and incorporate more recent observations of population change.
The SSP5 narrative describes a rapidly growing and flourishing global economy that remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, and a U.S. population that exceeds 730 million by 2100. ICLUS v2.1 land use projections under SSP5 result in a considerably larger expansion of developed lands relative to SSP2. The the amenity value of local climate (average precipitation and temperature for summer and winter) is used in ICLUS v2.1.1 to influence migration patterns. The name of the climate model used as the source of future climate patterns is included at the end of the file name (e.g., "GISS-E2-R" or "HadGEM2-ES"). The approach for incorporating climate change into the migration model is described in the ICLUS v2.0 documentation.
RCP8.5 assumes that global greenhouse gas emissions increase through the year 2100.
Resources
| Name |
Format |
Description |
Link |
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57 |
ICLUS_v2_1_1_land_use_conus_ssp5_rcp85_giss_e2_r.zip |
https://gaftp.epa.gov/epadatacommons/ORD/NCEA/ICLUS_v2.1.1/land_use/ICLUS_v2_1_1_land_use_conus_ssp5_rcp85_giss_e2_r.zip |
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57 |
ICLUS_v2_1_1_land_use_conus_ssp5_rcp85_hadgem2_es.zip |
https://gaftp.epa.gov/epadatacommons/ORD/NCEA/ICLUS_v2.1.1/land_use/ICLUS_v2_1_1_land_use_conus_ssp5_rcp85_hadgem2_es.zip |
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0 |
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https://www.epa.gov/ord/ |
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0 |
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https://www.epa.gov/ord/ |
Tags
- 020:094
- modeling
- united states
- climate
- human
- land