Projections of the impact of climate change on tourism in the Canary Islands

Results associated with the publication Projected impacts of climate change on tourism in the Canary Islands of the group of Earth and Atmosphere Observation (GOTA) of the University of La Laguna (ULL) in which climatic projections of some of the tourism indices widely used in the literature are made: the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) and the Holiday Climate Index (HCI). The latter has been subdivided for the bathing activity (HCIB) and the urban area (HCIU). These projections have been regionalised for the Canary Islands, with a resolution of 3 km, using as contour conditions some of the results provided by the CMIP5 initiative (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project), and covering the recent past (1980-2009) and the future (2070-2099), under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A dynamic downscaling technique has been applied using the WRF (Weather and Research and Forecasting) model guided by the results of three CMIP5 models (GFDL-ESM2M, IPSL-CM5A-MR and MIROC-ESM).