Number of dependent seniors from 2015 to 2050 – model EP24 (DREES-INSEE)

The model “EP24 – Projections of dependent elderly people” is the result of joint work between DREES and INSEE. It was mobilised for the projections made public in 2019 (Larbi and Roy, 2019).

The data available here are projections of the number of people aged over 60 between 2015 and 2050 with distributions by sex, age group and level of loss of autonomy, all at the departmental grid.The definition of dependency is based on the GIR estimated from the CARE surveys. This leads to a higher loss of autonomy than the current APA beneficiaries.

Description of columns of datasets:

Column name
| description

—|—
DEP
| department. “ENS” means the whole of France.

GENDER
| sex. 1: men, 2: women

minus_75
| age group: if TRUE then 60-74 years, if FALSE then 75 years and over

Population| Total number of individuals

volume_pop_dependent | Number of dependents (in GIR estimated 1 to 4)

volume_pop_dependent_heavy | Number of severely dependent people (in GIR estimated 1 to 2)
EV60a| Life expectancy at 60 years old

EVSI60a| Life expectancy without disability at age 60

The projections are available under several scenarios relating to the evolution of life expectancy, and several hypotheses on the evolution of dependence. There is a file by crossover scenario x hypothesis.

Life expectancy scenarios correspond to those of INSEE’s Omphale projections. “edv_bass” corresponds to the low life expectancy scenario, “edv_high” to the high and “central” life expectancy scenario to a central scenario (https://www.insee.fr/fr/information/3683517).

The assumptions for the evolution of dependency are defined as follows:

** Hypothesis
| definition**

—|—
“optimistic”| Life expectancy gains at age 60 correspond in total to gains from years of independent living.
“intermediate”| The proportion of moderately dependent years in life expectancy at age 60 remains constant; the gains in life expectancy thus correspond for one part to fully independent life and for another to years of moderate dependence, in proportion to the share observed today.
“pessimistic”| Life expectancy gains at 60 years without moderate dependence are zero; in other words, all life expectancy gains of seniors have passed into a state of moderate loss of autonomy.

These data are used as input to the Livia model to calculate the distribution of seniors in different types of living places (household, intermediate habitat and Ehpad), the code of which is available here: (future link)