Housing-led population projections

The housing-led projections reconcile future population growth with available housing supply by incorporating a housing supply trajectory. The housing-led projections are recommended for most local planning purposes, and the 10-year variant can be considered the default variant.

Users in London local authorities are able to request bespoke projections based on alternative housing scenarios through the GLA Population Projection Service.

The most recent set of projections are the 2022-based round (August 2024) which comprise three variants based on different migration and fertility assumptions.

All 2022-based projections are based on a common scenario of assumed future housing delivery that is derived from capacity identified in the 2017 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment.

These projections are based on modelled back series of population estimates produced by the GLA and available here.

Additional documentation, including updated information about methodologies and assumptions will be published in the coming days.

For more information about these projections, see the accompanying blog post.

The housing-led projections include projections for London Boroughs and London wards (2022 boundaries). The release also includes components of change (births, deaths and migration data).

Documentation page

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