Greater sage-grouse population change (percent change) over 50-years in a high oil and gas development, low population estimate scenario, and with effects of climate change under an RCP 8.5 scenario (2050)
Description
This data set defines boundaries of oil and gas project areas, greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) core areas, and non-core and non-project areas within the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI; southwestern Wyoming). Specifically, the data represents results from the manuscript “Combined influences of future oil and gas development and climate on potential Sage-grouse declines and redistribution” for high oil and gas development, low population size, and with effects of climate change under an RCP 8.5 scenario (2050) .
The oil and gas development scenario were based on an energy footprint model that simulates well, pad, and road patterns for oil and gas recovery options that vary in well types (vertical and directional) and number of wells per pad and use simulation results to quantify physical and wildlife-habitat impacts. I applied the model to assess tradeoffs among 10 conventional and directional-drilling scenarios in a natural gas field in southwestern Wyoming (see Garman 2017).
The effects climate change on sagebrush were developed using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM, version 4) climate model and representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario (emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century). The projected climate scenario was used to estimate the change in percent cover of sagebrush (see Homer et al. 2015).
The percent changes in sage-grouse population sizes represented in these data are modeled using an individual-based population model that simulates dynamics of populations by tracking movements of individuals in dynamically changing landscapes, as well as the fates of individuals as influenced by spatially heterogeneous demography.
We developed a case study to assess how spatially explicit individual based modeling could be used to evaluate future population outcomes of gradual landscape change from multiple stressors. For Greater sage-grouse in southwest Wyoming, we projected oil and gas development footprints and climate-induced vegetation changes fifty years into the future. Using a time-series of planned oil and gas development and predicted climate-induced changes in vegetation, we re-calculated habitat selection maps to dynamically modify future habitat quantity, quality, and configuration. We simulated long-term sage-grouse responses to habitat change by allowing individuals to adjust to shifts in habitat availability and quality. The use of spatially explicit individual-based modeling offered an important means of evaluating delayed indirect impacts of landscape change on wildlife population outcomes. This process and the outcomes on sage-grouse population changes are reflected in this data set.