Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030

Description

The Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030 presents spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land cover change from 2000 to 2030 at a 2.5 arc-minute resolution. For each grid cell that is non-urban in 2000, a Monte-Carlo model assigned a probability of becoming urban by the year 2030. The authors first extracted urban extent circa 2000 from the NASA MODIS Land Cover Type Product Version 5, which provides a conservative estimate of global urban land cover. The authors then used population densities from the Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1) to create the population density driver map. They estimated the amount of new urban land in each United Nations region by 2030 in a Monte-Carlo fashion based on present empirical distribution of regional urban population densities and probability density functions of projected regional population and GDP values for 2030. To facilitate integration with other data products, CIESIN reprojected the data from Goode's Homolosine to Geographic WGS84 projection.

Resources

Name Format Description Link
21 Search results for publications that cite this dataset by its DOI. https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=10.7927%2FH4Z899CG
21 Data Download Page https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/lulc-global-grid-prob-urban-expansion-2030/data-download
21 Maps Download Page https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/lulc-global-grid-prob-urban-expansion-2030/maps
21 Web Map Service Page https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/lulc-global-grid-prob-urban-expansion-2030/maps/services
21 Documentation Page http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/lulc-global-grid-prob-urban-expansion-2030/docs
21 Data Set Overview Page https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/lulc-global-grid-prob-urban-expansion-2030
22 Sample browse graphic of the data set. https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/downloads/maps/lulc/lulc-global-grid-prob-urban-expansion-2030/lulc-global-grid-prob-urban-expansion-2030-thumbnail.jpg

Tags

  • habitat-conversion-fragmentation
  • human-dimensions
  • earth-science

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