GLA: Interim 2015-based population projections

From January 2017 the GLA has revised its naming convention for it's population projections. Projections will now be labelled based on the latest mid-year estimate data which informs the projection. As such this set of projections is a 2015-based projection.

This set of projections is labelled ‘interim’ in anticipation of a revised set of 2015-based projections which will inform the London Plan. Once released, in spring 2017, those projections will supersede this set.

Four variants of local authority level population projections, one ward-level projection and one msoa-level projection are currenty available:

Borough

• Central Trend-based projection (using a 10-year migration scenario)

• Short-term Trend-based projection (using a 5-year migration scenario) 

• Long-term Trend-based projection (using a 14-year migration scenario)

• Housing-linked projection incorporating data from the 2013 SHLAA (consistent with the central trend model)

Small Area

• Ward-level projections consistent with the borough housing-led model

• MSOA-level projections consistent with the borough housing-led model

Documentation

Methodology papers for all of the projections are availble on the documentation page for this dataset.

Reults Updates for the Trend and Housing-led projections are available on the documentation page.

A series of ward projection profiles are also available to dowload.

Notes

A tool detailing the relationships between the various projections and variants can be found here.

These projections make no attempt to account for the UK's exit from the European Union.