ESRI Structural Household Demand by Local Authority

Household formation by scenario, local authority and year, for the 4 scenarios described in the project methodology for the years 2017-2040

https://www.esri.ie/publications/regional-demographics-and-structural-housing-demand-at-a-county-level

The 4 scenarios are:

Baseline/Business as usual — based on medium term projections for the economy with an Underlying assumption that net inwards migration would CONVERGE to 15,000 p.a. by 2024 and remain at that level throughout the projection horizon.

50:50 City — based on a similar outlook in terms of net inwards migration but whereby population growth is distributed in line with the objectives of the National Planning Framework (See National Policy Objectives 1a and 2a of https://npf.ie/wp-content/uploads/Project-Ireland-2040-NPF.pdf)

High Migration — assumes that net inwards migration stays at an elevated level throughout the projection horizon

Low Migration — assumes that net inwards migration falls to net inwards migration of 5,000 by 2022 before converging back to the business as usual levels (i.e. net inwards migration of 15,000 p.a.) by 2027 and remaining at that level thereafter.