Evaluating the predictive performance of human avalanche forecasts and model predictions in Switzerland

Description

This data set was used in the analysis by Techel et al. **Can model-based avalanche forecasts match the discriminatory skill of human danger level forecasts? A comparison from Switzerland**. Please note that the title of the preprint was *Forecasting avalanche danger: human-made forecasts vs. fully automated model-driven predictions*, submitted to *Natural Hazards Earth System Sciences* on 20 Aug 2024. The final manuscript used data from three forecasting seasons (2022/2023, 2023/2024, 2024/2025) , the preprint two forecasting seasons (2022/2023, 2023/2024) . Currently, the repository contains data from two avalanche forecasting seasons in Switzerland. The third season will be added (to be done, 30 June 2025). **Interpolated predictions** - The .zip file contains the interpolated predictions for the three models in nowcast- and forecast- mode. This data is needed to reproduce the figures and tables in the submitted preprint. The other data are the **raw data** underlying the interpolations: - Avalanche forecast by WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, published at 17.00 local time, valid for the following 24 hours and relating to dry snow avalanche conditions. - Model predictions in *nowcast*- and *forecast*-mode for three models (*danger level*, *instability*, *natural avalanche*), valid for 12.00 local time - Subset of points extracted from GPS tracks (courtesy of Skitourenguru GmbH) - Avalanche observations - natural avalanches and human-triggered avalanches - Estimates of the snowline - Randomly chosen subset of grid points used for generating reference distributions For details regarding the data sets refer to the publication.

Resources

Name Format Description Link
53 https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/comparing-human-forecasts-with-model-predictions/resource/be143570-31b9-4f62-a51c-05bde676f461
53 https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/comparing-human-forecasts-with-model-predictions/resource/4e3cc5ed-ff9a-4d74-ae66-08a868de5332
53 https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/comparing-human-forecasts-with-model-predictions/resource/87671683-a61d-45c0-92ff-d60fa3bd7e88
57 https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/comparing-human-forecasts-with-model-predictions/resource/cb2836c0-bab2-4686-b38b-2f3562827e89
53 https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/comparing-human-forecasts-with-model-predictions/resource/00b8d3db-ecf1-4a75-9ed9-b707fa2f6324
53 https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/comparing-human-forecasts-with-model-predictions/resource/48dfa07a-0f63-4e09-9160-6777085094e6
53 https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/comparing-human-forecasts-with-model-predictions/resource/80146d72-7abb-4b39-8336-613b49ed9a3c
53 https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/comparing-human-forecasts-with-model-predictions/resource/ca5a219a-bf68-49ee-82b2-d386e221f5ef
57 https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/comparing-human-forecasts-with-model-predictions/resource/d0599e29-dbf1-4d54-8c4b-10a248fd9fa2
53 https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/comparing-human-forecasts-with-model-predictions/resource/32c06c01-381b-4def-9cc8-b0db86c457e9
53 https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/comparing-human-forecasts-with-model-predictions/resource/021d90e0-68bd-42b6-8815-e26c10d3a363
53 https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/comparing-human-forecasts-with-model-predictions/resource/ca5a219a-bf68-49ee-82b2-d386e221f5ef
57 https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/comparing-human-forecasts-with-model-predictions/resource/cb2836c0-bab2-4686-b38b-2f3562827e89
53 https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/comparing-human-forecasts-with-model-predictions/resource/4e3cc5ed-ff9a-4d74-ae66-08a868de5332
53 https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/comparing-human-forecasts-with-model-predictions/resource/48dfa07a-0f63-4e09-9160-6777085094e6
53 https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/comparing-human-forecasts-with-model-predictions/resource/be143570-31b9-4f62-a51c-05bde676f461
57 https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/comparing-human-forecasts-with-model-predictions/resource/d0599e29-dbf1-4d54-8c4b-10a248fd9fa2
53 https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/comparing-human-forecasts-with-model-predictions/resource/00b8d3db-ecf1-4a75-9ed9-b707fa2f6324
53 https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/comparing-human-forecasts-with-model-predictions/resource/32c06c01-381b-4def-9cc8-b0db86c457e9
53 https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/comparing-human-forecasts-with-model-predictions/resource/87671683-a61d-45c0-92ff-d60fa3bd7e88
53 https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/comparing-human-forecasts-with-model-predictions/resource/80146d72-7abb-4b39-8336-613b49ed9a3c
53 https://www.envidat.ch/dataset/comparing-human-forecasts-with-model-predictions/resource/021d90e0-68bd-42b6-8815-e26c10d3a363

Tags

  • forecast-models
  • avalanche-release-probability
  • spatial-modelling
  • avalanche-forecast
  • machine-learning

Topics

  • EDUC

Categories