Development of Crime Forecasting and Mapping Systems for Use by Police in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and Rochester, New York, 1990-2001
Description
This study was designed to develop crime forecasting as an
application area for police in support of tactical deployment of
resources. Data on crime offense reports and computer aided dispatch
(CAD) drug calls and shots fired calls were collected from the
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Bureau of Police for the years 1990 through
2001. Data on crime offense reports were collected from the Rochester,
New York Police Department from January 1991 through December 2001.
The Rochester CAD drug calls and shots fired calls were collected from
January 1993 through May 2001. A total of 1,643,828 records (769,293
crime offense and 874,535 CAD) were collected from Pittsburgh, while
538,893 records (530,050 crime offense and 8,843 CAD) were collected
from Rochester. ArcView 3.3 and GDT Dynamap 2000 Street centerline
maps were used to address match the data, with some of the Pittsburgh
data being cleaned to fix obvious errors and increase address match
percentages. A SAS program was used to eliminate duplicate CAD calls
based on time and location of the calls. For the 1990 through 1999
Pittsburgh crime offense data, the address match rate was 91 percent.
The match rate for the 2000 through 2001 Pittsburgh crime offense data
was 72 percent. The Pittsburgh CAD data address match rate for 1990
through 1999 was 85 percent, while for 2000 through 2001 the match
rate was 100 percent because the new CAD system supplied incident
coordinates. The address match rates for the Rochester crime offenses
data was 96 percent, and 95 percent for the CAD data. Spatial overlay
in ArcView was used to add geographic area identifiers for each data
point: precinct, car beat, car beat plus, and 1990 Census tract. The
crimes included for both Pittsburgh and Rochester were aggravated
assault, arson, burglary, criminal mischief, misconduct, family
violence, gambling, larceny, liquor law violations, motor vehicle
theft, murder/manslaughter, prostitution, public drunkenness, rape,
robbery, simple assaults, trespassing, vandalism, weapons, CAD drugs,
and CAD shots fired.