6-week forecast for selected Rhine level, drain

Description

Since July 2022, the BfG has published a probability-based 6-week forecast of the outflow for marine-relevant levels on the Rhine. The 6-week forecast is provided for the Rhein-Pegel Kaub, Cologne and Duisburg-Ruhrort analogous to the 4-day low and medium water forecast via ELWIS. An update of the 6-week forecast takes place twice a week (Tuesdays and Fridays), each late morning. The 6-week forecast is based on current measurements of the levels in the Rhine catchment area and the information from over 1000 weather stations. The forecast is calculated on the basis of the ENS extended ensemble forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts (ECMW/ECMWF). Based on this extensive real-time data, the BfG uses a hydrological model to determine an ensemble of outflow forecasts over the next 6 weeks. On this basis, probability distributions of weekly average values for the trend forecast are determined in combination with statistical methods at the above-mentioned Rhine levels. This prediction is presented as box plots. Further explanations can be found at https://www.bafg.de/DE/08_Ref/M2/04_Vorhersagen/6wRheinElbe/6w_node.html. The file name of the boxplot quantile corresponds to the following schema: __6Weeks_Outflow_QuansBox.csv, In addition, a 4-class forecast is published that shows whether lower or higher outflows are predicted for the coming weeks compared to the long-term average. The file name of the boundaries and probabilities of the cake diagrams corresponds to the following schema: __6Weeks_Outflow_Pie.csv. The master data of the prediction level (e.g. coordinates) can be accessed via PEGELONLINE https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/.

Resources

Name Format Description Link
8 https://vorhersage.bafg.de/6-Wochen-Vorhersage/Rhein-Koeln_6Wochen_Abfluss_Pie.csv
8 https://vorhersage.bafg.de/6-Wochen-Vorhersage/Rhein-Kaub_6Wochen_Abfluss_QuansBox.csv
8 https://vorhersage.bafg.de/6-Wochen-Vorhersage/Rhein-Duisburg-Ruhrort_6Wochen_Abfluss_QuansBox.csv
8 https://vorhersage.bafg.de/6-Wochen-Vorhersage/Rhein-Kaub_6Wochen_Abfluss_Pie.csv
8 https://vorhersage.bafg.de/6-Wochen-Vorhersage/Rhein-Duisburg-Ruhrort_6Wochen_Abfluss_Pie.csv
8 https://vorhersage.bafg.de/6-Wochen-Vorhersage/Rhein-Koeln_6Wochen_Abfluss_QuansBox.csv

Tags

  • opendata
  • pegel-maxau
  • abflussvorhersage
  • wsv
  • pegel-kaub
  • elwis
  • rhein
  • pegel-köln
  • pegel-duisburg-ruhrort
  • 6-wochen

Topics

  • ENVI

Categories