Climate change: Results, deviations of underlying variables for 30-year periods and current situation

Description

The collection contains the results of analyses of the basic variables of regional climate models above Slovenia until the end of the 21st century in resolutions of 0.125° and 1 km. 30-year averages of variables at annual and seasonal levels are given, together with the ensemble range. The variables analysed are reference evapotranspiration (evspsblpot), precipitation level (pr) and average (tass), peak (tasmax) and lowest (tasmin) air temperature. The results are given in the form of a deviation of the selected variable relative to the average of the period 1981-2010. For temperature, deviation is given in °C and for precipitation and reference evapotranspiration as a relative change in percentages. The current situation (reference period 1981-2010) is contained in the directory ‘Current status (1981-2010)’. The values in the files are absolute and derived from interpolated values of ARSO network measurements. The results for each resolution are collected in the ZIP file. Within it, they are organised in NetCDF format files according to directories with names and structure {resolution}/{scenarij (or current state)}/{variable}. Files have names that contain information about the name of the variable, time of year, etc. separated by underscores. The components of the names are: variable name, type of data (deviation or absolute: absolute value), model resolution (12 km: 0.125°oz. 1 km), institution (ARSO), abbreviation of the greenhouse gas emissions scenario or measurements (rcp26: RCP2.6, rcp45: RCP4,5 or rcp85: RCP8.5 and measurements), the initial and final year of the period and the indication of the season or all-year period. The 30-year period is three: the near future (2011-2040), the middle of the century (2041-2070) and the end of the century (2071-2100). The seasons are marked “MAM” (spring), “JJA” (summer), “SON” (autumn) and “DJF” (winter), and the annual period is “year”. Each of the NetCDF files contains four levels: the first denotes the maximum deviation value of the model ensemble during that period (“Maximum”), the second median or the mean of the deviation of the model ensemble of the selected period from the reference period 1981-2010 (“Mediana”), the third minimum deviation value of the model ensemble during that period (“Minimum”) and the last compliance of the model simulations (“Reliability of change”). The consistency of the model simulations is described in section 4.8 of the first synthesis report between additional links. Its values are 1: high reliability, 0: no change and -1: low reliability. A summary of analyses of climate change by the end of the century in Slovenia can be found among additional links. There is also the first synthesis report on climate change in Slovenia, which contains a more detailed description of the methodology and results of climate projections. The analysis of model data is discussed in section 4.3.5 and by section 4.8 on the compliance of model simulations. A snapshot of all results is given in the addendum to the synthesis report or in the Atlas climate projections web application (addressed between additional links). One of the options for working with NetCDF files (extraction, aggregation, etc.) is the CDO program. Reading and statistical processing on NetCDF files are also possible with the statistical package R, especially its ncdf4 and raster packages. Links to CDO and R programs can be found in additional links.

Resources

Name Format Description Link
57 https://apis-g.arso.gov.si/s3/opsi-projekcije/public/Rezultati/Slovenija_podnebne_spremembe_Rezultati_1km.zip?api-key=cbbda698-6cdd-4833-bda6-986cdde833e3
33 https://meteo.arso.gov.si/uploads/probase/www/climate/text/sl/publications/OPS21_Porocilo.pdf
21 https://meteo.arso.gov.si/met/sl/climate/change/
21 https://www.r-project.org/
57 https://apis-g.arso.gov.si/s3/opsi-projekcije/public/Rezultati/Slovenija_podnebne_spremembe_Rezultati_12km.zip?api-key=cbbda698-6cdd-4833-bda6-986cdde833e3
21 https://code.mpimet.mpg.de/projects/cdo/wiki/Tutorial
21 https://meteo.arso.gov.si/uploads/probase/www/climate/OPS21/Priloge-app/

Tags

  • podnebje
  • rezultati
  • podnebne-spremembe
  • slovenija
  • projekcije

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