Anticipating Community Drug Problems in Washington, DC, and Portland, Oregon, 1984-1990
Description
This study examined the use of arrestee urinalysis results
as a predictor of other community drug problems. A three-stage public
health model was developed using drug diffusion and community drug
indicators as aggregate measures of individual drug use
careers. Monthly data on drug indicators for Washington, DC, and
Portland, Oregon, were used to: (1) estimate the correlations of drug
problem indicators over time, (2) examine the correlations among
indicators at different stages in the spread of new forms of drug
abuse, and (3) estimate lagged models in which arrestee urinalysis
results were used to predict subsequent community drug
problems. Variables included arrestee drug test results, drug-overdose
deaths, crimes reported to the local police department, and child
maltreatment incidents. Washington variables also included
drug-related emergency room episodes. The unit of analysis was months
covered by the study. The Washington, DC, data consist of 78 records,
one for each month from April 1984 through September 1990. The
Portland, Oregon, data contain 33 records, one for each month from
January 1988 through September 1990.