Description
This dataset shows modelled climate projected changes calculated by GEUS using DK model HIP. Includes nationwide median change and associated uncertainties on the statistically processed changes in depth to ground-near groundwater, soil water content in the root zone and water flow in streams in the periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2100.
The climate-produced changes in:
• Depth of ground water
• Soil moisture content in the root zone
• Water flow in watercourses
available as the median change for selected statistically processed products across the 17 RCP 8.5 and the 5 RCP 4.5 climate simulations for the projected periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2100.
The relatively low number of models of 5 used for RCP 4.5 means that there may be greater uncertainty on median and standard deviations in this emission scenario. In addition, RCP 4.5 for the reference period differs from observed climate from 2010-2019, while RCP 8.5 follows the developments observed in the zeros.
The model calculations can be used to make climate-resilient and long-term-proof solutions that take into account the expected changes in depth to the ground-near groundwater in a given area due to climate change.
Depending on the application, the standard deviation can be used to assess projected values for the wettest and driest climate models. This can be done by adding (or deduction) of one or two standard deviations, to median changes. For additional assumptions regarding distribution function (e.g. normally distributed), it is in principle possible to calculate a distribution function or confidence limits for the climate projection.
Although the depth of ground water in 100x100m does not directly show results of a hydrological model like the corresponding product in 500x500m, but is a result of a machine learning downscaling algorithm, the method is suitable for showing more local details in the change of depth to the groundwater table. This is confirmed by the validation of the downscaled 100x100m maps and is due to the fact that the change in the groundwater table, among other things, is controlled by variations in the topography and/or hydraulic conductivity, available in high resolution of at least 100 m (i.e. in a finer resolution than the 500x500 metre model). It is ensured that the general patterns of downscaled products are in good accordance with the results of the 500x500m model, as the downscaling algorithm always uses the corresponding 500x500m model results as input.
When using the downscaled climate projected changes, it is recommended that you take into account the uncertainties available for corresponding climate projected changes in 500x500 meters (the standard deviation across the climate models). The downscaling with the Random Forest algorithm adds extreme uncertainty, however, as mentioned, the validation shows that the level of detail increases in the downscaling.
Resources
| Name |
Format |
Description |
Link |
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48 |
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https://docs.dataforsyningen.dk/#hydro-model_v1.0.0 |
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0 |
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https://api.dataforsyningen.dk/hip_dtg_10m_100m?service=WMS&request=GetCapabilities&token= |
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0 |
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https://api.dataforsyningen.dk/hip_vandfoering?service=WMS&request=GetCapabilities&token= |
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0 |
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https://api.dataforsyningen.dk/hip_dtg_500m?service=WMS&request=GetCapabilities&token= |