Information Relating to the General Circulation Model CGCM3. Local Climate Change Scenario of Andalusia updated to the Fifth IPCC Report

Description

The General Circulation Model to which this information refers and to which the statistical Downscaling method of the Analogues is applied is the CGCM3. The MCG MRI-CGCM3 (Yukimoto et al. (2012)), for its acronym in English Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) – Coupled General Circulation Model, version 3, is a coupled atmosphere-ocean model, through the exchange of energy between the two. It has been developed by the Japan Meteorological Research Institute. The AR5 has used a set of four scenarios that do consider climate policies, the so-called Representative Concentration Pathways or Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), see (IPCC, 2013). These SPCs are defined as scenarios covering time series of emissions and concentrations of the full range of GHGs and chemically active aerosols and gases, as well as land use and land cover (Moss et al., 2010). The term “representative” means that each concentration path offers one of many possible scenarios that would lead to specific radiative forcing characteristics. The term trajectory emphasizes that only long-term concentration levels are of interest, but also indicates the path followed over time to reach the result in question (Moss et al., 2010). Representative concentration trajectories generally refer to the part of the concentration trajectory up to the year 2100, for which the integrated assessment models have generated the corresponding emission scenarios. These are identified by the approximate total radiative forcing for the year 2100 with respect to 1750, which is considered to fall within a range between 2.6 and 8.5 Wm-2. These values should be considered as indicative only, as the climate forcing resulting from all factors varies from model to model, depending on the characteristics of the model and the treatment of short-lived substances. For RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, the radiative forcing does not reach its maximum until 2100; for RCP2.6, it peaks and then decreases; and for RCP4.5, it stabilises towards 2100. This new approach leads us to emphasize that, in the functioning of the climate system, what is really important is not so much the amount of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere, but the way in which those gases modify the energy balance of the planet. Some of the new SPCs make it possible to contemplate the effects of policies aimed at limiting climate change in the 21st century. Each SPC is associated with a high-resolution spatial database of emissions of polluting substances (classified by sector), GHG emissions and concentrations and land uses up to the year 2100, based on a combination of models of different atmospheric chemistry and carbon cycle complexity.

Resources

Name Format Description Link

Tags

  • climatología
  • ideandalucia
  • opendata
  • cambio-climático
  • modelo-atmosférico

Topics

  • TECH

Categories