General Information on Local Climate Change Scenarios in Andalusia updated to the Fifth Report of the IPCC

Description

The Andalusian Environmental Information Network (REDIAM) has produced a series of regionalized climate scenarios for Andalusia based on the report (AR5) of the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). Future simulations have been generated in three periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100), for 9 General Circulation Models (GCMs), in 4 emission scenarios (CPR26, CPR45, CPR60 and CPR85) and the reference scenario with the representative climate for the period 1961-2000. This project is called “Local Climate Change Scenarios updated to the 5th Report of the IPCC”, whose main objective is to inform scientists, technicians, politicians, administration, companies and citizens in general, of the expected effects of Climate Change on the Andalusian region at a semi-detailed scale -trying to reflect the climatic variability that characterizes it-, basic information for the development of adaptation policies.This simulation has led to a multitude of territorial studies that allow us to know the impacts of climate change in sectors such as the environment, agriculture, health, industry, tourism, etc. "Information Relating to General Circulation Models and Scenarios" The main tool for the prospection of the climate of the coming decades are the so-called Numerical Climate Prediction Models (MPNCs) or as they are commonly known, General Circulation Models (MCGs). These models (Gordon et al., 2000; Stendel et al., 2000) simulate flows of energy, mass and amount of motion, using primitive equations of dynamics, between the points of a three-dimensional grid that extends across the Atmosphere and Oceans and the upper layers of the Lithosphere and Cryosphere. Through the temporal integration of these flows, simulated evolutions of atmospheric states are obtained. There are different types of models, depending on the dimensions in which you work, they are distinguished: models in 1D (energy balance, convective radiation models), 2D (height-latitude plane) and 3D (MCGs; atmosphere, ocean, atmosphere-ocean). More modern CGMs include layers in the lower and middle stratosphere, as recent studies demonstrate their influence on the climate system (Smagorinski, 1965; Manabe and Hunt, 1968), and is expected to be included in the next IPCC. Since 1990, we have been working with coupled atmosphere-ocean models and these are those included in the fourth report of the IPCC and with which we are currently working. CGMs have three main characteristics: resolution, formulation and configuration. Since the models are integrated for extended periods of time (from weeks to hundreds of years), it is more important that they represent the general circulation of large areas than the specific details of time in localized areas, so a resolution of several degrees of latitude/longitude is sufficient. The formulation refers to the mathematical resolution of the models (grid or spectral). Finally, configuration is how a CGM runs: There are two types of models, atmospheric and coupled (atmosphere-ocean). The first are atmospheric models that represent the interaction with the ocean through the introduction of fixed temperature data on the sea surface, while in the second, an oceanic model is responsible for simulating changes in sea temperature and can react to possible atmospheric changes. The latter are the most used today. The above characteristics are those that will distinguish some models from others, especially their resolution, that is, the size of the grid in which they work. Another feature that differs them is their resolution in the vertical and that informs of the pressure levels. More advanced CGMs initialized their simulations in the early 19th century with the radioactive forcings of the pre-industrial era. During the temporary integration, these forcings are modified in accordance with the records or estimates of historical concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, when the integration reaches the present moment and is internal in the future, the concentrations of these agents are estimated according to the forecasts of human activity: climate change scenarios (Nakicenovic & Swart, 2000). CGMs show a remarkable ability to reproduce the main characteristics of general atmospheric circulation, such as “Hadley cells”, extratropical storm belts, etc. (Stendel et al., 2000). The problem arises when the results are checked on a smaller scale (that is, a few points are selected from the work grid) where the variables, especially on the surface, do not approximate the values actually observed.

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Tags

  • climatología
  • ideandalucia
  • opendata
  • cambio-climático
  • modelo-atmosférico

Topics

  • TECH

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