The demography of nurses by 2030: a national and regional projection exercise

Scenarios have been used to test assumptions about the evolution of the national quota and the postponement of cessations of activity, in order to measure the impact of the statutory reform of employed nurses in the public hospital or of the pension reform on the evolution of the number of nurses.Several scenarios have been simulated: — the trend scenario is based on the assumption of constant behaviour, namely that the behaviours of nurses observed in a recent past and the measures of regulation of the public authorities would remain unchanged over the whole projection period;- the other scenarios, called variants, differ from the trend scenario only by a hypothesis — corresponding to the evolution of a behaviour or the introduction of a measure — which makes it possible to measure its own impact on the evolution of the workforce.