14-day water level forecasts for selected Rhine level

Description

Since July 2022, the BfG has published a 14-day probability-based forecast of the water level for marine-relevant levels of the Rhine. The forecast period of the 10-day forecast introduced in 2019 was thus extended by four days. The 14-day forecast will be provided for the seven discharge-relevant Rhine levels Oestrich, Kaub, Koblenz, Cologne, Düsseldorf, Duisburg-Ruhrort and Emmerich analogous to the 4-day low and medium water forecast via ELWIS. An update of the 14-day forecast takes place on a working day, in the late morning. The 14-day forecast is based on current readings of around 50 levels of the federal and state governments in the Rhine catchment area and information from over 1000 weather stations. In addition, numerous meteorological predictions from various sources are taken into account (so-called ensembles). Based on these extensive real-time data, the BfG uses hydrological and hydraulic models to determine an ensemble of water level forecasts over the next 14 days. On this basis, in combination with statistical methods at the discharge-relevant Rhine levels, the probability of falling below the different water levels is determined, from which the characteristic funnel or fan-shaped representation is created. The file name of the probability-based prediction quantile corresponds to the following schema _Quantile_.csv (e.g. Emmerich_Quantile_2790020.csv). In the respective files, the 5 %, 10 %, 20 %, 25 %, 30 %, 40 %, 50 %, 60 %, 70 %, 75 %, 80 %, 90 %, 95 % quantiles of the probability-based prediction of the daily mean values of the water level for the next 14 days are published. Above the flood level II (HSW), the values of the 14-day water level forecast are hidden. In the event of floods, the forecasts provided several times a day by the regionally responsible flood forecasting and reporting centres of the federal states represent the current, official information on the development of water levels in the coming days (see: http://www.hochwasser-rlp.de/ and Ω). The master data of the prediction level (e.g. coordinates) can be accessed via PEGELONLINE https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/.

Resources

Name Format Description Link
8 https://vorhersage.bafg.de/14-Tage-Vorhersage/Emmerich_Quantile_2790020.csv
8 https://vorhersage.bafg.de/14-Tage-Vorhersage/Kaub_Quantile_25700100.csv
8 https://vorhersage.bafg.de/14-Tage-Vorhersage/Koblenz_Quantile_25900700.csv
8 https://vorhersage.bafg.de/14-Tage-Vorhersage/Duesseldorf_Quantile_2750010.csv
8 https://vorhersage.bafg.de/14-Tage-Vorhersage/Oestrich_Quantile_25100300.csv
8 https://vorhersage.bafg.de/14-Tage-Vorhersage/Duisburg-Ruhrort_Quantile_2770010.csv
8 https://vorhersage.bafg.de/14-Tage-Vorhersage/Koeln_Quantile_2730010.csv

Tags

  • pegel-koblenz
  • opendata
  • wsv
  • pegel-düsseldorf
  • pegel-kaub
  • elwis
  • rhein
  • pegel-emmerich
  • pegel-oestrich
  • wasserstandsvorhersage
  • pegel-köln
  • pegel-duisburg-ruhrort

Topics

  • TRAN
  • ECON
  • ENVI

Categories