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Wang, Z., Greenan, B.J.W., Hannah, C.G., and Layton, C. 2025. Past and future sea surface temperature changes in the oceans surrounding Canada. Can. Tech. Rep. Hydrogr. Ocean. Sci. 404: v + 44 p This study presents changes in the sea surface temperature (SST) in the oceans surrounding Canada using past observations and model projections of future scenarios. The past changes are derived using an SST product, HadISST, in which a recent period (2012-2022) was referenced to a 26-year climatology (1955- 1980). The future changes in SST are estimated using a 22-member ensemble of CMIP6 models. The SST changes for overlapping periods from the CMIP6 ensemble and the HadISST in the 10 regions of the Canadian shelf waters are in general agreement, although the CMIP6 results tend to overestimate the observed changes by about 0.1 oC. One exception to this is the Scotian Shelf where the CMIP6 models underestimate the observed SST change. The Gulf of Maine, Scotian Shelf, Gulf of St. Lawrence and southern Newfoundland shelf are the regions with the largest observed SST increases around Canada. The Gulf of St. Lawrence has the highest correlation (r=0.65) with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) among the subregions in the North Atlantic Ocean, and the British Columbia Shelf is correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (r=0.58). Under the four climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5), among the mid-century (2040-2059) annual mean SST changes (reference period of 1990-2014) in the 10 regions, the Gulf of St. Lawrence is projected to have the largest increases in temperature (1.8 – 2.5oC), and Baffin Bay has the smallest increases (0.5 – 0.9oC), However, for the summer means, the southern Beaufort Sea has the largest SST increase (2.4 - 3.1oC) with Baffin Bay having the smallest changes (1.3-2.1oC). Cite this data as: Wang, Z., Greenan, B.J.W., Hannah, C.G., and Layton, C. (2025) Data of: Past and Future Sea Surface Temperature Changes in the Oceans Surrounding Canada. Published: October 2025. Ocean Ecosystems Science Division, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Dartmouth, N.S. https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/3c336e55-4266-406a-922d-bbf8e717558c

Resources

Name	Format	Description	Link
Past and Future Sea Surface Temperature Changes in the Oceans Surrounding Canada	Unknown		https://api-proxy.edh-cde.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/catalogue/records/3c336e55-4266-406a-922d-bbf8e717558c/attachments/Downloads.gdb.zip
Past and Future Sea Surface Temperature Changes in the Oceans Surrounding Canada	CSV		https://api-proxy.edh-cde.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/catalogue/records/3c336e55-4266-406a-922d-bbf8e717558c/attachments/Past_Future_SST_CSVs.zip
Data Dictionary	CSV		https://api-proxy.edh-cde.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/catalogue/records/3c336e55-4266-406a-922d-bbf8e717558c/attachments/Past_Future_SST_DD.csv
Past and Future Sea Surface Temperature Changes in the Oceans Surrounding Canada	Ersi REST		https://egisp.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/arcgis/rest/services/open_data_donnees_ouvertes/past_and_future_sst_changes_surrounding_canada/MapServer
Past and Future Sea Surface Temperature Changes in the Oceans Surrounding Canada	Ersi REST		https://egisp.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/arcgis/rest/services/open_data_donnees_ouvertes/past_and_future_sst_changes_surrounding_canada/MapServer
Past and Future Sea Surface Temperature Changes in the Oceans Surrounding Canada	PDF		https://waves-vagues.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/library-bibliotheque/41300087.pdf

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