Risk Assessment of Marine Floods Associated with Sea Level Rises in the Coast of Andalusia

Description

Of all the consequences of climate change, sea level rise is probably the one on which there is a greater degree of consensus about its occurrence. The present work, developed by the University of Seville (Dpto. Physical Geography and Regional Geographic Analysis) addresses the prediction, in terms of probability, of the extent of foreseeable marine flooding according to the different scenarios set out in the 2013 IPCC report; RPC2.6, RPC4.5 and RPC8.5 (Gregory, 2013) and by Jevrejeva et al. (2012), who estimates an average sea rise that exceeds by 0.21m the most pessimistic scenario of the IPCC (RPC8.5). Through a probabilistic analysis of the sea levels expected at the end of the 21st century, a series of results have been derived with cartographic implementation for the entire coast of Andalusia, based on a digital model of elevations with a resolution of 5m. (IGN, 2013) and for the specific environment of the mouth of the Tinto and the Odiel, based on a 1m resolution MDE extracted from LIDAR data available in January 2013 and integrated into REDIAM. Obtained the data of probability of occurrence in the different scenarios proposed, a risk analysis is included in relation to the affectation both to habitats of community interest (HIC) and to, with due caution and understood as a first approximation, the affectation to residential spaces based on cadastral information. Risk calculation is carried out as a function of hazard and vulnerability.

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Tags

  • inundacioĢn
  • regiones-marinas
  • ideandalucia
  • opendata
  • zonas-de-riesgos-naturales
  • modelo-de-probabilidad
  • riesgo-ambiental
  • costa

Topics

  • TECH

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