Uusimaa regional workplace projection 1980-2060

Description

Number of jobs, i.e. employed in the region 1980-2017, and projection of the development of the number of jobs by municipality/region and by industry category in Uusimaa regions 2018-2035. 14 municipalities in the Helsinki region by municipality, the rest of Uusimaa and the Riihimäki region by sub-regional unit. There are three options for projects: basic, fast and slow. The projections were prepared by Seppo Laakso from Urban Research TA Oy. The time series data has been formed as a knowledge base for a projection model to calculate estimates of future job numbers. The time series data have been compiled from Statistics Finland’s employment statistics since 1987. The data for 1980 are based on the census for that year and the data for 1985 on the population and housing census. The years between 1980, 1985, 1987 are estimated by interpolation (by assuming an annual steady change). At the time of the construction, the latest year following the year in the employment statistics has been estimated using the data on changes in the Labour Force Survey. The effects of changes in industrial classifications have been corrected with correction factors that have been used to change the data before 2008 to correspond to the TOL-2008 classification. Due to industry conversions and corrections, the time series does not represent official statistics. Time series data for the years 1980-2017 (2017 preliminary estimate), projections for 2018-2030. Calculation and time series update done on 12/2018. ##Area groups Helsinki region by municipality Metropolitan area (Espoo, Helsinki, Kauniainen, Vantaa) Hot region (Hyvinkää, Järvenpää, Kerava, Kirkkonummi, Mäntsälä, Nurmijärvi, Pornainen, Sipoo, Tuusula, Vihti) Other Uusimaa Porvoo region (Askola, Myrskylä, Porvoo, Pukkila) Loviisa region (Lapinjärvi, Loviisa) Raasepori region (Hanko, Inkoo, Raasepori) Lohja region (Karkkila, Lohja, Siuntio) Riihimäki region (Hausjärvi, Loppi, Riihimäki) ##Target set and cropping The number of people employed in the area, regardless of their place of residence, is used as a measure of the number of jobs. Those working in the area form the so-called working day population. A person’s field of activity is determined by the sector of his/her job. Everyone working in the same establishment will receive the same industry regardless of their profession. The sector of employment is determined for each establishment and self-employed person in accordance with Statistics Finland’s industrial classification. ##Sectoral division The model applies the division of sectors of employment into eight categories defined by applying the 2-digit level of the classification of economic activities in TOL-2008. The industries have been combined in such a way that harmonised, comparable time series by industry group and by region have been formed since 1980. Over the years, several changes in the classification of economic activities have been carried out, and industrial groups have been formed in such a way that comparability has been maintained in all changes in the classification. ##Job development options The updating of workplace projects in 2018 was carried out in accordance with the original starting point (in 2012), so that the sectoral projection at the level of the county was based on the economic research institutes’ produced employment forecasts by industry: — VATT Centre for Economic Research, 2015. The need for labour in the Finnish economy in 20152030. VATT Studies 181. — ETLA, Business Research Institute, 2018. Cyclical review. Economic cycle yearbook 2018:2. VATT’s study examined the development of labour needs in the Finnish economy between 2015 and 2030. The study compiled future scenarios for Finland’s economy, based on which alternative trajectories from different economic variables were calculated using VTT’s computational models of general equilibrium. In Uusimaa’s workplace projects, national results of the annual growth of the number of employed persons in 28 industry groups from 2017 to 2030 were applied according to the Policy Career foresight option. For each sector group of the Uusimaa workplace projection model, VATT’s results were made into growth parameters describing job growth by sector in the whole county from 2017 to 2030. In Uusimaa, each industry is assumed to grow at the same pace (%/year) as in VATT’s national forecast. On the basis of VATT’s forecast, there has been a negative impact on job development in Uusimaa. ETLA’s forecast estimated the change in jobs at national level from 2017 to 2020 using the same industry groups as in the Uusimaa projection model with small exceptions. ETLA’s industry-specific forecasts of change have been converted into relative annual growth (%/year) and have been applied in the projection model until 2030. Based on ETLA’s forecast, a basic alternative to job development in Uusimaa has been made. In addition, we have drawn up a HIDAS STATEMENT for workplace development in Uusimaa, which has been made mechanically from the base option by reducing the annual growth rate of each industry group by 0.5 per cent. The slow option is a hypothetical alternative that has been presented for comparison to illustrate the impact of a significant slowdown in growth on regional development in the county and its regions and municipalities.

Resources

Name Format Description Link
0 https://www.avoindata.fi/data/dataset/2a15bea9-1285-4c74-b5f3-4a48849980d6/resource/f044b67a-9e39-4350-97ca-321b9dded82b
0 https://www.avoindata.fi/data/dataset/2a15bea9-1285-4c74-b5f3-4a48849980d6/resource/f044b67a-9e39-4350-97ca-321b9dded82b
0 https://www.avoindata.fi/data/dataset/2a15bea9-1285-4c74-b5f3-4a48849980d6/resource/f044b67a-9e39-4350-97ca-321b9dded82b
0 https://www.avoindata.fi/data/dataset/2a15bea9-1285-4c74-b5f3-4a48849980d6/resource/f044b67a-9e39-4350-97ca-321b9dded82b

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  • työpaikat
  • jobs

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