Population forecast of the City of Turku
Description
The population projection has been constructed to model population trends, taking into account the population, building stock and future planned housing construction of the previous years. The data includes a population forecast projection for the years
2021-2051. The projection takes into account the population of previous years and the realised housing stock.
The population forecast describes possible future trends in population numbers. Population forecast projection is a description of the number of populations that the population forecast algorithm will calculate for the coming years.
The Population Forecasting algorithm is based on a machine learning algorithm that conforms to the ‘population forest’, which utilises the historical data of the population of small areas and the realised annual housing stock in these areas.
The model has been taught to predict the future population based on previous years’ previous population and realised housing stock. The projection itself has been built until 2051.
The reason for this is the City of Turku’s land use plan used in the projection, which extends until 2050.
The forecast has been implemented in two parts. First, the number of zero-year-olds has been taught on the basis of the number of zero-year-olds in the previous year as well as the previous year’s number of zero-year-olds.
Population aged 20-35. The population aged 1-100+ is predicted on the basis of the population younger than the previous year and the age of the previous year and the dwelling stock of the previous year. In addition, the housing stock is divided
detached houses, blocks of flats and terraced houses based on the annual cumulative floor area. In population forecast projection, this housing stock is expected to grow in the City of Turku
in accordance with the land use plan. Demographic data used in education is Turku’s small-area-specific population data provided by Statistics Finland’s Population Information Service annually according to the age of one year
since 2005-2020. Housing stock data has been retrieved from the Turku Building Register.
The population forecast provides a possible scenario for the development of the number of Turku region-specific populations. It is based on projecting the trend of growth into the future.
However, in the future, there may be unexpected or non-modelling events that will change the growth path of the trend. As a result, the accuracy of the forecast decreases
the further we go into the future. This is annotated in the data by uncertainty categories. However, the forecast provides an opportunity to anticipate events by helping the user
prepare for a possible scenario.
The data has been made to be shared in such a way that data protection and the terms of use of Statistics Finland have been taken into account. This has been implemented in practice by providing forecast data at different regional levels with different age breakdowns.
The data has been divided between 1) for the whole Turku age years 0-100+, 2) for large areas by age group, and 3) for small areas for the whole population.
The data for actual years have been produced by Statistics Finland. For contractual and data protection reasons, the City of Turku’s open data service has limited the scope of the content.
Information about the model in brief:
* Model: Random forest (adapted with Population Forest)
* The model has been tested for 2015-2020. The average absolute error (MAE) has been used in the quality assessment.
* MAE: 1st year 1.38, 5th year 2.99
* Explainers: population by 1 year old by small area, cumulative dwelling stock by type of dwelling (detached house, terraced house, blocks of flats)
* Teaching data: Population by small area by 1-year-old age 2005-2020 (Statistics Centre/Population Information Service) and City Cumulative Housing Stock (Central Building Register of the City of Turku)
Additional information:
* [regions of the city of Turku](/data/en/dataset/turun-city divisions)
* [populationMetsä application] (https://www.avoindata.fi/data/fi/showcase/vaestometsa)
* [Väestömetsä won Statistics Finland’s Data Successors Competition] (https://www.stat.fi/uutinen/vaestometsa-palvelu-voitti-ensimmaisen-datamenestyjat-kilpailun)
* [Small Area Statistics of the City of Turku] (https://www.avoindata.fi/data/fi/dataset/turun-kaupungin-pienaluetilastoja)
* [Statistics Finland’s Population Statistics Service] (https://www.stat.fi/tup/vaestotilastopalvelu/kirjautuminen.html) (paid)
Updates:
* 13.1.2022 Material published
Resources
| Name |
Format |
Description |
Link |
|
0 |
|
https://www.avoindata.fi/data/dataset/266ce96e-10ed-4f31-8e50-090a392d8372/resource/d4820a9d-e50a-4c50-a7c3-1571e4469f7d |