2070 Extreme Climate Change Scenarios for Water Supply Planning

Description

DWR’s 2070 extreme climate change scenarios enable exploration of the vulnerability of and opportunities for water supply at the potential bounds of future climate change conditions. These scenarios were originally developed as part of the public benefit uncertainty analysis for the California Water Commission’s Water Storage Investment Program (WSIP) (dataset available here: https://data.cnra.ca.gov/dataset/climate-change-projections-wsip-2030-2070). In 2018, DWR’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Program (SGMP) furnished these extreme scenarios for use by Groundwater Sustainability Agencies (GSAs) (dataset available here: https://data.cnra.ca.gov/dataset/sgma-climate-change-resources). Specifically, downscaled global climate model (GCM) projections were provided for two future climate periods, including a 2030 central tendency, a 2070 central tendency, and two 2070 extreme scenarios to establish a range of projected conditions. **Since then, DWR collaborated with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory to improve the fidelity of these long-range planning datasets, resulting in this update of the 2070 extreme scenarios.** The 2070 extreme scenario update utilizes an improved climate period analysis method to better capture the GCM-projected change in temperature and precipitation. The updated dataset improves downscaled climate change extreme conditions considered for water supply that features both statewide coverage of hydrologic variables and managed flows within California’s inter-regional water conveyance system. **A technical note on the background and results of this process is provided here**: https://data.cnra.ca.gov/dataset/extreme-climate-change-scenarios-for-water-supply-planning/resource/f2e1c61a-4946-4863-825f-e6d516b433ed.

Resources

Name Format Description Link
57 CalSim‐II model simulations of storage, flows, and diversions for the major tributaries of the Central Valley for water years 1922 through 2003. https://data.cnra.ca.gov/dataset/3154bfc4-4cd5-4c06-b1e1-65643d07f4e7/resource/75ad545a-7da4-4921-a0e8-637fde43dd3c/download/calsimii-2070dew_update.zip
57 Year 2070 future condition with projected climate and sea level conditions for a thirty‐year period centered at 2070 (climate period 2056‐2085) based on GCM HadGEM2‐ES and emission scenario RCP 8.5. Temperature and precipitation are developed from the downscaled model using quantile delta mapping. https://data.cnra.ca.gov/dataset/3154bfc4-4cd5-4c06-b1e1-65643d07f4e7/resource/1ab250a7-368c-42b9-b713-a3de3996e48f/download/dew2070.zip
57 CalSim‐II model simulations of storage, flows, and diversions for the major tributaries of the Central Valley for water years 1922 through 2003. https://data.cnra.ca.gov/dataset/3154bfc4-4cd5-4c06-b1e1-65643d07f4e7/resource/e95dc4a0-2fc6-4800-891b-2e1f1bebe356/download/calsimii-2070wmw_update.zip
57 Year 2070 future condition with projected climate and sea level conditions for a thirty‐year period centered at 2070 (climate period 2056‐2085) based on GCM CNRM-CM5 and emission scenario RCP 4.5. Temperature and precipitation are developed from the downscaled model using quantile delta mapping. https://data.cnra.ca.gov/dataset/3154bfc4-4cd5-4c06-b1e1-65643d07f4e7/resource/b8a86a27-d7d3-4b5c-a76d-909f8424772c/download/wmw2070.zip
33 This document describes the background and nature of updates made to the 2070 Extreme Scenarios dataset. https://data.cnra.ca.gov/dataset/3154bfc4-4cd5-4c06-b1e1-65643d07f4e7/resource/f2e1c61a-4946-4863-825f-e6d516b433ed/download/update-to-the-2070-extreme-climate-change-scenarios-dataset.pdf

Tags

  • groundwater
  • planning
  • climate-change
  • water-supply
  • hydrology
  • california-department-of-water-resources

Topics

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