Information Relating to the General Circulation Model ESM1. Local Climate Change Scenario of Andalusia updated to the Fifth IPCC Report

Description

The BCC-ESM1 GCM (Wu et al.(2013)) is the first version of a fully coupled Earth System Model with interactive atmospheric chemistry and aerosols developed by the Beijing Climate Center (Beijing), China Meteorological Administration. More information at: https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/977/2020 The AR5 has used a set of four scenarios that do consider climate policies, the so-called Representative Concentration Pathways or Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), see (IPCC, 2013). These SPCs are defined as scenarios covering time series of emissions and concentrations of the full range of GHGs and chemically active aerosols and gases, as well as land use and land cover (Moss et al., 2010). The term “representative” means that each concentration path offers one of many possible scenarios that would lead to specific radiative forcing characteristics. The term trajectory emphasizes that only long-term concentration levels are of interest, but also indicates the path followed over time to reach the result in question (Moss et al., 2010). Representative concentration trajectories generally refer to the part of the concentration trajectory up to the year 2100, for which the integrated assessment models have generated the corresponding emission scenarios. These are identified by the approximate total radiative forcing for the year 2100 with respect to 1750, which is considered to fall within a range between 2.6 and 8.5 Wm-2. These values should be considered as indicative only, as the climate forcing resulting from all factors varies from model to model, depending on the characteristics of the model and the treatment of short-lived substances. For RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, the radiative forcing does not reach its maximum until 2100; for RCP2.6, it peaks and then decreases; and for RCP4.5, it stabilises towards 2100. This new approach leads us to emphasize that, in the functioning of the climate system, what is really important is not so much the amount of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere, but the way in which those gases modify the energy balance of the planet. Some of the new SPCs make it possible to contemplate the effects of policies aimed at limiting climate change in the 21st century. Each SPC is associated with a high-resolution spatial database of emissions of polluting substances (classified by sector), GHG emissions and concentrations and land uses up to the year 2100, based on a combination of models of different atmospheric chemistry and carbon cycle complexity. SCENARIOS CONTEMPLATED BY ESM1 HIST scenario: Historical reference scenario for the period 1961-2000. It is the climatic information observed in that period. Scenario CPR26: GHG emissions scenario RCP2.6 is the Representative Concentration Pathway where the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios considered in the AR5 correspond to a radiative forcing for the year 2,100 decreasing and estimated at 2.6 W/m2, and a CO2 concentration of 421 ppm. Scenario CPR45: GHG emissions scenario RCP4.5 is the Representative Concentration Pathway where the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios considered in the AR5 correspond to a stable radiative forcing for the year 2,100 and estimated at 4.5 W/m2, and a CO2 concentration of 538 ppm. Scenario RCP60: GHG emissions scenario RCP6.0 is the Representative Concentration Pathway where the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios considered in the AR5 correspond to a radiative forcing for the year 2,100 increasing and estimated at 6.0 W/m2, and a CO2 concentration of 670 ppm. Scenario RCP85: GHG emissions scenario RCP8.5 is the Representative Concentration Pathway where the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios considered in the AR5 correspond to a radiative forcing for the year 2,100 increasing and estimated at 8.5 W/m2, and a CO2 concentration of 936 ppm.

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Tags

  • climatología
  • ideandalucia
  • opendata
  • cambio-climático
  • modelo-atmosférico

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  • TECH

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